Chinese automakers to capture 16% of European market share by 2030, study says

According to the Global Automotive Outlook Report released by AlixPartners, despite facing tariff barriers, Chinese automakers such as BYD, Chery, and SAIC MG are accelerating their entry into the European market. It is projected that by 2030, Chinese automakers could capture a 16% market share in Europe.

Stephen Dyer, head of AlixPartners' Asia-Pacific automotive business, stated that although the European market is highly competitive and demand is nearing saturation, Chinese automakers are still pouring in. He added that Chinese automakers are squeezing the market share of local European automakers, while overall market sales have not increased.

Aggressively expanding into the European market is both an opportunity and a necessity for Chinese automakers. Europe's stringent emission regulations, well-established charging infrastructure, and strong consumer demand for electric vehicles make it highly suitable for the development of new energy vehicles. At the same time, slowing sales and intense competition in China's domestic auto market are forcing major Chinese auto brands to seek new growth opportunities overseas.

Preliminary data from market research firm Dataforce shows that total new car sales in Europe in May increased by only 3.4% year-on-year to 1.13 million units, while sales of Chinese brands surged by 97% to 121,030 units, achieving a record-high market share of 10.7% for the month.

AlixPartners predicts that Chinese auto exports will accelerate this year, with total overseas exports rising from 7.1 million units in 2025 to at least 10 million units. Dyer noted that the export focus of Chinese automakers is gradually shifting from Russia and Belarus to core Western European markets such as France and Germany. Young German consumers have a high acceptance of new Chinese cars. Survey data shows that among Germans aged 18 to 34, 36% prefer Chinese cars over domestic brands.

To better meet the demands of the European market, Chinese automakers are implementing a "local production, local sales" strategy, expanding overseas vehicle assembly capacity through cooperative models. AlixPartners expects that the overseas vehicle production capacity of Chinese automakers will expand from 1.2 million units in 2025 to 3.4 million units by 2030.

Currently, major Chinese automakers are competing for idle factory facilities in Europe. Data shows that many European auto plants are operating at less than 60% capacity, with a total of 2.5 million units of idle annual capacity. Several Chinese automakers have expressed strong interest in moving in. At the same time, local European automakers are proactively inviting Chinese competitors to occupy their idle factories.

On June 10, Max Messina, head of Nissan's European operations, revealed that the capacity utilization rate of the Sunderland plant in the UK has fallen below the profitability threshold. Nissan plans to take on contract manufacturing, producing vehicles under the Chery brand. Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume stated during an earnings call on April 30 that cooperating with Chinese partners such as SAIC, FAW, and XPeng for joint production is a very pragmatic approach.